Saskatoon Real Estate Report as of July 18th

Posted by Andrew Slater on Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 at 8:31am.

 

WEEKLY UPDATE

DURING COVID-19

Housing sales still strong in July!

June had 515 residential properties sell, that is an average of 17.17 per day. As of July 18th there were 284 residential sales, an average of 15.78 per day. July is on pace for 489 sales.

Good House are Selling!

64 of the 284 houses that sold in July sold in the first 14 days of being listed (22.5%)

112 sold in the first 21 days of being listed, 39%!

What type of property is selling the most? Single detached houses, 203 of the 284 were single detached, 71%

What price range is selling? 119 single detached homes under $400,000 sold in July, 42%

There are currently 466 single detached homes for sale in Saskatoon, 297 have been on the market for over 21 days, 64%!

Why aren't these houses selling? Click this link for more information; Top Ten Reasons Your House Isn't Selling

If you want to know where our housing market was before covid-19 click here.

 

 

 

 

May

326 properties sold

79 of those properties sold in the first 14 days, 24%

The first 14 - 21 days are the most important when you list your house, if your REALTOR® has guided you properly you should be getting showings and offers within this time period.

51 more sold between day 15 - 21, 40% sold in the first 21 days!

$200,000 or less - 40 - 12%

$201,000 - $300,000 - 87 - 27%

$301,000 - $400,000 - 100 - 31%

$401,000 - $500,000 - 52 - 16%

$501,000 and over - 47 - 14%

 

57% of these sales were between $201,000 and $400,000.

79 (61%)  of these were on the east side of the river.

The Hot Areas

Stonebridge 24 - (7%)

Rosewood 19 (6%)

Evergreen - 14 (4%)

What is selling?

Single Detached - 243 - 75%

Semi - Detached - 11 - 3%

Townhouse - 37 - 11%

Apartment Style Condo - 35 - 11%

 

June

515 properties sold, the most in since June 2014 (533)

165 of those properties sold in the first 14 days, 32%

The first 14 - 21 days are the most important when you list your house, if your REALTOR® has guided you properly you should be getting showings and offers within this time period.

84 more sold between day 15 - 21, 48% sold in the first 21 days!

$200,000 or less - 77 - 15%

$201,000 - $300,000 - 143 - 29%

$301,000 - $400,000 - 160 - 31%

$401,000 - $500,000 - 84 - 16%

$501,000 and over - 51 - 10%

60% of June's sales were homes selling between $201,000 - $400,000

336 properties sold on the east side of the river, 65%

The hot areas:

Stonebridge 41 (8%)

Evergreen 32 (6%)

Lake...wood, view, ridge 31 (6%)

Willowgrove 22 (4%)

Whats Selling?

Single Detached 377 (73%)

Semi-Detached 13 (3%)

Townhouses 54 (10%)

Apartment Style Condos 71 (14%)

 

Week of June 23rd - June 30th 

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 124 81  3 33 49
Semi Detached 5 5 0 1 3
Townhouse 29 15 0 5 6
Apartment Condo 25 17 0 11 11
Total 183 118 3 50 69

 

Sales Level Off!

Week of June 16th - June 23rd 

We had 4 LESS sales last week than the week before! New listings are down 10%, 171 this week compared to 192 the previous week.

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 117 89  4 35 37
Semi Detached 2 4 0 1 4
Townhouse 25 12 2 5 3
Apartment Condo 27 15 0 10 13
Total 171 120 6 51 57

 

 Week of June 9th - June 15th 

Last week 124 properties sold in Saskatoon, 15 more than the 2 weeks ago, up 14%! Apartment style Condos were up 70%, are buyers worried about the new mortgage rules?

New listings were up 15%! Does this mean sellers are becoming more comfortable with people entering their homes or are they worried the new mortgage rules will cause their property values to fall?

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 128 89  2 40 41
Semi Detached 7 1 0 1 3
Townhouse 22 12 0 9 7
Apartment Condo 35 22 2 7 14
Total 192 124 4 57 65

The Median Sales price for all Residential Sales in June was $8,000 less than May

Single Family Detached is up slightly

this mean house prices are falling? Probably not!

In May we had 326 sales;

$500,000 or over - 49 units

$500,000 - $350,000 - 110 units

$350,000 or less - 167 units

In June we had 515  sales, 189 more than May!

$500,000 or over - 52 units (3 more than May)

$500,000 - $350,000 - 172 units (62 more than May)

$350,000 or less - 297 units (130 more than May) 

As you can see, sales are up huge June and the median sale price was $8,000 less. What buyers have been purchasing has changed! Have buyers been worried about the new mortgage rules that CMHC will implement July 1st?

 

What you need to know about June. 

Buyers - Typically June has the highest Benchmark Price, about 3% - 4% higher than the lowest month, February. June also, on average, has the most active listings, giving buyers more choices. In this market you have to be looking at the new listings daily, your REALTOR® should be sending you new listings that match your criteria daily. You don't have time to wait if you need to buy, good houses are getting offers within days of being listed!

Sellers - Is now a good time to list your house? Definitely! Should you list your house now? That depends on your situation and how comfortable you are with people going through your house. If your house is listed or you are considering listing, here are couple points to consider. 

1) If it's not compelling...it's not selling! 

2) June is typically the highest Benchmark Price of the year. If your property doesn't sell during June, you are going to lose out on some cash! Only about 1%, but are you willing to give up a few thousand dollars? When your house is at the high end of the range or over-priced, you are waiting for your "Unicorn". The "Unicorn" is a buyer that loves everything about your property and is willing to pay to get it!

There were 18 new cases of Covid in Saskatchewan on Monday, 13 of those were in the far north. Currently there are 12 active cases in Saskatoon, double the amount from 2 weeks ago!

The number of new listing went up 15% from 2 weeks ago, are sellers more comfortable listing their homes or are they worried the new mortgage rules will cause their house value to drop?

There are precautions to take while your house is listed. I am doing Virtual Tours and Virtual Open Houses for my sellers. This will lead to less showings but the showings they receive will be more serious. I just showed one of my listings yesterday and they found out about it through my Virtual Tour, I also use Social Media Marketing which gets my listings more exposure. After the showing, the potential buyers wanted to book a second showing! We can also have buyers fill out a Buyers Waiver. As a seller you can also request potential buyers and their agents wear PPE while viewing your house, (Masks and gloves) Leaving out hand sanitizer and wipes as well as turn on all the lights and leave doors open so that people are not touching as many surfaces.

 

 

 

 

 

This data is from Google Trends which shows what was being searched over a period of time. The chart below is "houses for sale" in Canada. You can see that March and April there wasn't much interest in houses for sale, but May has gone up! 

 

#houses-for-sale-trend-90-days#

This is where it gets interesting for us! The most popular region in Canada that Canadians were searching for houses.....Saskatchewan! 

 It gets better! Look what city was the most searched by Canadians looking for houses for sale.....Saskatoon!

 

These next 2 charts will show us the monthly totals of New Listings and Number of Sales. This will help us compare not only what is happening month to month but also to what was happening last year. We can see that the number of houses sold in April 2020 is down 44% compared to the amount sold in April 2019. You will also notice that the number of sales from March to April in 2019 went up 47% and in 2020 March to April went down 22%. The May numbers are in and as expected the # of sales in May was up considerably from the # of sales in April. When we look at the # of sales last May compared to this May we see that we are down 23% 

June was huge in Saskatoon! 140 more sales than June last year, new listings up as well!

-break#

Have house prices been affected?

The first tool we will look at it is the Home Price Index. With this we can look at what prices are doing nationally, regionally, locally, even down to a neighbourhood! Check out these videos for an explanation.

 

The following charts show that the Benchmark Price is slightly lower this June than the previous June. So far the Saskatoon Market is doing well through Covid!

 

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

You have probably heard the term, "It's a buyer's market" or "It's a sellers market"

The next stat we need to follow is Months of Inventory. This is a stat that tells us, based on the amount of sales, if there were no more new listings, how long would it take for the current amount of listings to sell. The formula is;

  1. Find the number of active listings on the market within a certain time period. 
  2. Identify how many homes were sold or conditionally sold during that same time period.
  3. Divide the active listings number by the sales and conditional sales to find months of supply.

This can be as general as all residential housing in Saskatoon for the past 12 months or 3 bedroom bungalows, 900-1,100 sq ft in River Heights for the past month! Note: If you use to short a time period you won't get an accurate result, in my opinion using the last 3 months would give you the best indication.

A Seller's Market is 4 months (120 days) or less of inventory.

A Balanced Market is 4 - 6 months (120-180 days) of inventory.

A Buyer's Market is 6 months (180 days) or more of inventory.

Here are our stats.

Active listing are down significantly from last year

 

 

June was a sellers market!

 

 

As you can see we have been in a balanced market up until the end of May 2020, June was officially a Seller's Market!

Does this mean your home is in a seller's market? Maybe, but it's not that simple.

If there are 20 buyers looking for 4 bedroom houses, over 1,600 sq ft with a 3 car garage in the north end and there are only 3, months of inventory might be .5

Conversely, if there are 25 buyers looking for 2+ bedroom houses, 800+ sq ft, priced under $350,000 anywhere in Saskatoon, and there are 300 listed, months of inventory might be 12!

Top Ten Reasons Your House Isn't Selling

If you would like to have the weekly update of this report click the link below. 

#contact-form-button#

Finally I will track some economic indicators, I went over these on my page B.C. Before Covid-19 

Following these will give us an idea of where the economy is going and what to expect going forward. The will also help to give us an idea where the market might be A.C. After Covid-19 

HOUSING STARTS

(Monthly) This was supposed to be updated June 8th! Not sure what the delay is

Good news on housing starts!

 INTEREST RATES

#boc-overnight-rate#

The Overnight Rate, often referred to as The Policy Interest Rate, is a rate set by The Bank of Canada that the 5 major banks base their lending rates on. 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

"Unemployment hasn't been this bad since The Great Depression!"

The Great Depression lasted for years! We have had high unemployment for 1 month! 13% in Canada for April. I am curious to see what the number for May will be...higher? I doubt it! Provinces have started opening up the economy and the Federal Government has offered the C.E.W.S. Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. 

I will be posting stats on the U.S. economy as our economy depends on the U.S. In 2018 Canada exported 584 Billion worth of goods, 3/4's of that went to the U.S.

Here are unemployment numbers and projections for the U.S.

“News stories often describe the coronavirus-induced global economic downturn as the worst since the Great Depression…the comparison does more to terrify than clarify.”

“From 1929 to 1933, the economy shrank for 43 consecutive months, according to contemporaneous estimates. Unemployment climbed to nearly 25% before slowly beginning its descent, but it remained above 10% for an entire decade…This time, many economists believe a rebound could begin this year or early next year.”

Clearly the 2 don't compare!

(Monthly)

Canada

As you can see the unemployment rate is falling.

#canada-unemployment# 

Saskatchewan

Our unemployment rate rose 1.2% for the month of May

As expected, unemployment fell in June!

To be expected with the economic shut down that unemployment numbers would go up. The the opening up of the economy and the C.E.W.S. (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy) we should see these numbers come down on the next report!

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

(Last Tuesday of every month)

Two months of going up! Still not where we were pre covid, but heading in the right direction.

This is what is called a "lagging" economic indicator, going down is not a good sign. 

If you want to "Go Deep" on how it works, click here.

 #canadian-consumer-confidence-index#

PRICE OF OIL

Good thing to keep an eye on in Western Canada

Not where we were pre-covid, will the current rise in covid cases in the U.S. affect the price?

#crude-oil-price#

Probably a good stat to watch, if production goes up that should equate to more jobs!

#crude-oil-production#

PRICE OF POTASH

(Monthly)

Since the month of April potash is down $22.50 a metric ton.

 

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