Since social distancing measures were put in place there have been a lot of different opinions on what will happen to the housing market during covid-19, most of them negative. The reason mainstream media and social media have a lot of negativity Is economically based, research has shown that negative stimuli elicit a larger brain response than positive ones, if you want to market to people what do you need?....Their attention!
In this report I will look at the housing market before covid-19 , where was the market in Saskatoon? I will monitor the market during covid-19 to keep readers up to date on where the market is and speculate on where it is going. I will provide a weekly update that will contain weekly stats as well as monthly and quarterly updates. I will also offer speculation on what will happen to the market after covid-19, this will be based on past recessions as well as current research by industry experts.
To access the weekly market report you can click on the link below.
To start with we have to understand what influences the price of houses. What drives the price of houses or any other goods or services, is a basic economic principal which is The Law of Supply and Demand. When there is a high demand for a product or service and a small supply, prices go up, conversely when there's a small demand and a large supply prices decrease.
What influences the Law of Supply and Demand in the real estate market?
There are four key factors we have to keep an eye on;
Demographics are the data that describes the composition of a population such as age sex education level income level Marital status Etc. for example, Baby Boomers represent a substantial portion of the population. How will they affect the market? Will it be selling larger homes and buying smaller ones? Buying vacation properties?
The lower the interest rates the more affordable a mortgage becomes!
3) THE ECONOMY
The overall health of the economy is a key factor! When the economy is good and businesses are thriving, people are working their spending money on goods and services, which includes buying homes. conversely when the economy is down so are house prices. the economy is generally measured by economic indicators the ones will be following are as follows;
Employment figures - this data comes out once a month and the lower the better ( but not too low!)
C.C.I. consumer confidence index - this is also released monthly and increasing is a good sign!
G.D.P. gross domestic product this is released annually and quarterly and increasing is a good sign
Price of crude oil - important to not only the economy of western Canada but of the country.
Building Permits, Housing Starts & Completions - These stats are important as they give an indication of consumer confidence. Obviously higher numbers would indicate a strong or strengthening housing market. Looking deeper into these stats can give you an idea of what areas of the housing market are/maybe performing better than others.
At times the government will introduce Programs to help stimulate housing market such as the Home Buyers Plan.
The next thing we have to understand is that real estate follows a simple and unavoidable cycle.
It was first observed over a 100 years ago by American economist Henry George.
"You may not have heard of George, but his work is widely studied by experts on commodity cycles. Professor Fred E. Foldvary wrote in a 1997 paper that building on the “insights of Henry George,” he believed “the next major [US] bust, [will be] 18 years after the 1990 downturn…if there’s no major interruption such a global war.” He was proven correct in 2008, when the US real estate commodity cycle took down the whole global economy in the Great Recession. Got your attention yet?”
I “borrowed” this from Stephen Punwasi, co-founder and chief data nerd at Better Dwelling. Fascinating web-site with some great articles!
There are some that will tell you that real estate follows a 7 year cycle, I've heard this in Saskatoon and when I lived in Kelowna. There are theories that other locations follow a 7 year cycle as well, but I haven't found any evidence to prove that. I have found the above mentioned theory that is based on a number of factors and doesn't follow a time line, it follows stats based on math and math doesn't lie.
The 4 Phases of this real estate cycle are;
Phase One: Recovery
Phase Two, Expansion
Phase Three, Hypersupply
Phase Four: Recession
For complete information on these phases click here.
Now that we know what to look for, let's analyze where the Saskatoon real estate market was B.C. Before Covid-19