Saskatoon Real Estate Report

Posted by Andrew Slater on Tuesday, June 16th, 2020 at 10:33am.

 

SASKATOON REAL ESTATE REPORT

WEEKLY UPDATE

DURING COVID-19

In this report I will update the weekly stats for Saskatoon as well as the running stats during covid.

If you want to know where our housing market was before covid-19 click here.

This will eventually turn into live report!

 I missed last week as I took my kids camping!

Sales Still Increasing!

Week of June 9th - June 15th 

Last week 124 properties sold in Saskatoon, 15 more than the 2 weeks ago, up 14%! Apartment style Condos were up 70%, are buyers worried about the new mortgage rules?

New listings were up 15%! Does this mean sellers are becoming more comfortable with people entering their homes or are they worried the new mortgage rules will cause their property values to fall?

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 128 89  2 40 41
Semi Detached 7 1 0 1 3
Townhouse 22 12 0 9 7
Apartment Condo 35 22 2 7 14
Total 192 124 4 57 65

Week of May 26th - June 1st 

Last week 108 properties sold in Saskatoon, 32 more than the previous week, up 42%! New listings were down 1.5% It will be interesting to see the Benchmark price for May, will it show prices going up? I am going to say yes! Less new listings and more sales will cause prices to rise, it's the Law of Supply and Demand

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 114 74  7 43 73
Semi Detached 3 7 1 0 4
Townhouse 18 15 0 0 12
Apartment Condo 32 13 0 10 26
Total 167 109 8 53 115

Sales have been rising the first 3 weeks of May and the final week saw 109 sales compared to 108 the week before. Good houses, expertly priced, are moving quickly! 

Did House Prices Go Up In May?

Let's look at 3 different stats;

Year over Year - This shows a 7.57% increase in average price compared to last May

Month over Month - This shows a 5.77% increase from April

This is the Benchmark Price - This shows a 1% increase month over month

Which one is correct? How much has your property gone up?

You have to look deeper into the stats to compare apples to apples. These stats are overall numbers and the all come with flaws. In the second scenario, month over month up by 5.77%, in April 213 properties sold, 3 for over $600k and 2 for over a million. In May, 326 properties sold, 21 over $600k and 2 over a million. Of course that is going to change the average price, did your property go up 5.77%?

It all depends on what you are selling and in what area. I was looking at a house that was listed recently for $369,900, when I looked at comparables I thought it should sell between $325,000 - $345,000, it sold for $355,000! If you have a compelling property, I would list it at 5% over the higher end of the range.

What you need to know about June. 

Buyers - Typically June has the highest Benchmark Price, about 3% - 4% higher than the lowest month, February. June also, on average, has the most active listings, giving buyers more choices. In this market you have to be looking at the new listings daily, your REALTOR® should be sending you new listings that match your criteria daily. You don't have time to wait if you need to buy, good houses are getting offers within days of being listed!

Sellers - Is now a good time to list your house? Definitely! Should you list your house now? That depends on your situation and how comfortable you are with people going through your house. If your house is listed or you are considering listing, here are couple points to consider. 

1) If it's not compelling...it's not selling! 

2) June is typically the highest Benchmark Price of the year. If your property doesn't sell during June, you are going to lose out on some cash! Only about 1%, but are you willing to give up a few thousand dollars? When your house is at the high end of the range or over-priced, you are waiting for your "Unicorn". The "Unicorn" is a buyer that loves everything about your property and is willing to pay to get it!

There were 18 new cases of Covid in Saskatchewan on Monday, 13 of those were in the far north. Currently there are 12 active cases in Saskatoon, double the amount from 2 weeks ago!

The number of new listing went up 15% from 2 weeks ago, are sellers more comfortable listing their homes or are they worried the new mortgage rules will cause their house value to drop?

There are precautions to take while your house is listed. I am doing Virtual Tours and Virtual Open Houses for my sellers. This will lead to less showings but the showings they receive will be more serious. I just showed one of my listings yesterday and they found out about it through my Virtual Tour, I also use Social Media Marketing which gets my listings more exposure. After the showing, the potential buyers wanted to book a second showing! We can also have buyers fill out a Buyers Waiver. As a seller you can also request potential buyers and their agents wear PPE while viewing your house, (Masks and gloves) Leaving out hand sanitizer and wipes as well as turn on all the lights and leave doors open so that people are not touching as many surfaces.

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

This data is from Google Trends which shows what was being searched over a period of time. The chart below is "houses for sale" in Canada. You can see that March and April there wasn't much interest in houses for sale, but May has gone up! 

 

#houses-for-sale-trend-90-days#

This is where it gets interesting for us! The most popular region in Canada that Canadians were searching for houses.....Saskatchewan! 

 It gets better! Look what city was the most searched by Canadians looking for houses for sale.....Saskatoon!

 

These next 2 charts will show us the monthly totals of New Listings and Number of Sales. This will help us compare not only what is happening month to month but also to what was happening last year. We can see that the number of houses sold in April 2020 is down 44% compared to the amount sold in April 2019. You will also notice that the number of sales from March to April in 2019 went up 47% and in 2020 March to April went down 22%. The May numbers are in and as expected the # of sales in May was up considerably from the # of sales in April. When we look at the # of sales last May compared to this May we see that we are down 23% 

Here is some positive news! Last June we averaged 12.5 sales per day, so far in June 2020 we are averaging 16.5 sales per day! Last June we averaged 26.3 new listings per day, this June we are averaging 29.5 listings per day.

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Have house prices been affected?

The first tool we will look at it is the Home Price Index. With this we can look at what prices are doing nationally, regionally, locally, even down to a neighbourhood! Check out these videos for an explanation.

 

Looking at these 2 charts that show the Saskatoon Home Price Index form April 2019 and April 2020 you can see that the composite price is the same!

You might be looking at the 1st graph and wondering, "Did prices go up in April?" Nope, There was a house sell in Saskatoon for 3.7 million! Do you see how this stat could be used to claim that house prices are going up? When you are going to sell your house you need accurate information! How do I determine the price range of a house? Click here.

These next charts show the Benchmark Price for May 2019 ($290,000) compared to May 2020 ($289,100) not much of a difference.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

You have probably heard the term, "It's a buyer's market" or "It's a sellers market"

The next stat we need to follow is Months of Inventory. This is a stat that tells us, based on the amount of sales, if there were no more new listings, how long would it take for the current amount of listings to sell. The formula is;

  1. Find the number of active listings on the market within a certain time period. 
  2. Identify how many homes were sold or conditionally sold during that same time period.
  3. Divide the active listings number by the sales and conditional sales to find months of supply.

This can be as general as all residential housing in Saskatoon for the past 12 months or 3 bedroom bungalows, 900-1,100 sq ft in River Heights for the past month! Note: If you use to short a time period you won't get an accurate result, in my opinion using the last 3 months would give you the best indication.

A Seller's Market is 4 months (120 days) or less of inventory.

A Balanced Market is 4 - 6 months (120-180 days) of inventory.

A Buyer's Market is 6 months (180 days) or more of inventory.

Here are our stats.

The number of active listings per month from January 2019 until May 2020. As you can see listings are now keeping pace with 2019.

Here are the months of inventory

 

 

Now that we have finished May we are at 5 months of inventory! What will June bring?

 

 

As you can see we have been in a balanced market, except for a few months, since January 2019.

Does this mean your home is in a balanced market? Maybe, but it's not that simple.

If there are 20 buyers looking for 4 bedroom houses, over 1,600 sq ft with a 3 car garage in the north end and there are only 3, months of inventory might be .5

Conversely, if there are 25 buyers looking for 2+ bedroom houses, 800+ sq ft, priced under $350,000 anywhere in Saskatoon, and there are 300 listed, months of inventory might be 12!

If you would like to have the weekly update of this report click the link below. 

#contact-form-button#

Finally I will track some economic indicators, I went over these on my page B.C. Before Covid-19 

Following these will give us an idea of where the economy is going and what to expect going forward. The will also help to give us an idea where the market might be A.C. After Covid-19 

HOUSING STARTS

(Monthly) This was supposed to be updated June 8th! Not sure what the delay is

Good news on housing starts!

 INTEREST RATES

#boc-overnight-rate#

The Overnight Rate, often referred to as The Policy Interest Rate, is a rate set by The Bank of Canada that the 5 major banks base their lending rates on. 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

"Unemployment hasn't been this bad since The Great Depression!"

The Great Depression lasted for years! We have had high unemployment for 1 month! 13% in Canada for April. I am curious to see what the number for May will be...higher? I doubt it! Provinces have started opening up the economy and the Federal Government has offered the C.E.W.S. Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. 

I will be posting stats on the U.S. economy as our economy depends on the U.S. In 2018 Canada exported 584 Billion worth of goods, 3/4's of that went to the U.S.

Here are unemployment numbers and projections for the U.S.

“News stories often describe the coronavirus-induced global economic downturn as the worst since the Great Depression…the comparison does more to terrify than clarify.”

“From 1929 to 1933, the economy shrank for 43 consecutive months, according to contemporaneous estimates. Unemployment climbed to nearly 25% before slowly beginning its descent, but it remained above 10% for an entire decade…This time, many economists believe a rebound could begin this year or early next year.”

Clearly the 2 don't compare!

(Monthly)

Canada

#canada-unemployment# 

Saskatchewan

Our unemployment rate rose 1.2% for the month of May

To be expected with the economic shut down that unemployment numbers would go up. The the opening up of the economy and the C.E.W.S. (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy) we should see these numbers come down on the next report!

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

(Last Tuesday of every month)

We had a slight rise!

This is what is called a "lagging" economic indicator, going down is not a good sign. 

If you want to "Go Deep" on how it works, click here.

 #canadian-consumer-confidence-index#

PRICE OF OIL

Good thing to keep an eye on in Western Canada

#crude-oil-price#

Probably a good stat to watch, if production goes up that should equate to more jobs!

#crude-oil-production#

PRICE OF POTASH

(Monthly)

The price of potash is down from the month of April

 

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