Saskatoon Weekly Real Estate Report (May 19th-26th)

Posted by Andrew Slater on Saturday, May 30th, 2020 at 11:18am.

 

SASKATOON REAL ESTATE REPORT

WEEKLY UPDATE

DURING COVID-19

In this report I will update the weekly stats for Saskatoon as well as the running stats during covid.

If you want to know where our housing market was before covid-19 click here.

This will eventually turn into live report!

 

Sales up again, 42%! 

Sales are up 42% from the week before and new listings were down 1.5%. Agents and buyers are telling me that good properties are moving quickly. One agent I spoke with told me a few of his listings were priced at the "top of the range" and sold for list price. 

What is causing this rise in sales? There were a group of buyers looking to buy in March and April, then the world hit the pause button and we all stayed in our homes! Now that we are starting to open up the economy we have all the buyers from March and April plus the new buyers from May out looking at houses. We have less new listings this year compared to last year. Why less new listings? March and April are obvious as everyone was concerned about Covid and I would speculate that some of that uneasiness has carried over into May.

Is now a good time to list your house? Definitely! Should you list your house now? That depends on your situation and how comfortable you are with people going through your house. If you are considering listing here are some points to consider. 

There are only 6 active cases in Saskatoon and area.

There are precautions to take while your house is listed. I am doing Virtual Tours and Virtual Open Houses for my sellers. This will lead to less showings but the showings they receive will be more serious. I just showed one of my listings yesterday and they found out about it through my Virtual Tour, I also use Social Media Marketing which gets my listings more exposure. After the showing the potential buyers wanted to book a second showing! We can also have buyers fill out a Buyers Waiver. As a seller you can also request potential buyers and their agents wear PPE while viewing your house, (Masks and gloves) Leaving out hand sanitizer and wipes as well as turn on all the lights and leave doors open so that people are not touching as many surfaces.

This week I would also like to dispel another myth,

"Unemployment hasn't been this bad since The Great Depression!"

The Great Depression lasted for years! We have had high unemployment for 1 month! 13% in Canada for April. I am curious to see what the number for May will be...higher? I doubt it! Provinces have started opening up the economy and the Federal Government has offered the C.E.W.S. Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. 

I will be posting stats on the U.S. economy as our economy depends on the U.S. In 2018 Canada exported 584 Billion worth of goods, 3/4's of that went to the U.S.

Here are unemployment numbers and projections for the U.S.

“News stories often describe the coronavirus-induced global economic downturn as the worst since the Great Depression…the comparison does more to terrify than clarify.”

“From 1929 to 1933, the economy shrank for 43 consecutive months, according to contemporaneous estimates. Unemployment climbed to nearly 25% before slowly beginning its descent, but it remained above 10% for an entire decade…This time, many economists believe a rebound could begin this year or early next year.”

Clearly the 2 don't compare!

 

 

Week of May 19th -26th 

Last week 108 properties sold in Saskatoon, 32 more than the previous week, up 42%! New listings were down 1.5% It will be interesting to see the Benchmark price for May, will it show prices going up? I am going to say yes! Less new listings and more sales will cause prices to rise, it's the Law of Supply and Demand

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 123 82  3 29 53
Semi Detached 3 2 1 2 3
Townhouse 29 12 1 4 9
Apartment Condo 30 12 0 7 18
Total 185 108 5 42 83

Week of May 11th -17th 

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 128 61  3 26 56
Semi Detached 5 1 0 1 0
Townhouse 18 7 0 6 6
Apartment Condo 37 7 0 10 18
Total 188 76 3 43 80

Last week we had 11 more new listings than the week before, up 6%.

We had a significant increase in sales, 27 more than last week! Up 55%

 

Week of May 4th -10th 

  New Listings Solds Conditional Sold Price Decrease Off Market
Single Detached 125 35  8 36 37
Semi Detached 2 1 0 1 1
Townhouse 20 6 0 7 8
Apartment Condo 30 7 0 3 6
Total 177 49 8 47 52

Here is a week to week comparison, as you can see we are starting to exceed last years numbers.

 

 

 

This data is from Google Trends which shows what was being searched over a period of time. The chart below is "houses for sale" in Canada. You can see that March and April there wasn't much interest in houses for sale, but May has gone up! 

 

#houses-for-sale-trend-90-days#

This is where it gets interesting for us! The most popular region in Canada that Canadians were searching for houses.....Saskatchewan! 

 It gets better! Look what city was the most searched by Canadians looking for houses for sale.....Saskatoon!

 

These next 2 charts will show us the monthly totals of New Listings and Number of Sales. This will help us compare not only what is happening month to month but also to what was happening last year. We can see that the number of houses sold in April 2020 is down 44% compared to the amount sold in April 2019. You will also notice that the number of sales from March to April in 2019 went up 47% and in 2020 March to April went down 22%. This shouldn't be a surprise given what we are going through at the moment! Has this affected house prices? Let's move to the next set of data. If you would like to read the SRA (Saskatchewan Realtors® Association) monthly report click here.

 

Have house prices been affected?

The first tool we will look at it is the Home Price Index. With this we can look at what prices are doing nationally, regionally, locally, even down to a neighbourhood! Check out these videos for an explanation.

 

Looking at these 2 charts that show the Saskatoon Home Price Index form April 2019 and April 2020 you can see that the composite price is the same!

You might be looking at the 1st graph and wondering, "Did prices go up in April?" Nope, There was a house sell in Saskatoon for 3.7 million! Do you see how this stat could be used to claim that house prices are going up? When you are going to sell your house you need accurate information! How do I determine the price range of a house? Click here.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

You have probably heard the term, "It's a buyer's market" or "It's a sellers market"

The next stat we need to follow is Months of Inventory. This is a stat that tells us, based on the amount of sales, if there were no more new listings, how long would it take for the current amount of listings to sell. The formula is;

  1. Find the number of active listings on the market within a certain time period. 
  2. Identify how many homes were sold or conditionally sold during that same time period.
  3. Divide the active listings number by the sales and conditional sales to find months of supply.

This can be as general as all residential housing in Saskatoon for the past 12 months or 3 bedroom bungalows, 900-1,100 sq ft in River Heights for the past month! Note: If you use to short a time period you won't get an accurate result, in my opinion using the last 3 months would give you the best indication.

A Seller's Market is 4 months (120 days) or less of inventory.

A Balanced Market is 4 - 6 months (120-180 days) of inventory.

A Buyer's Market is 6 months (180 days) or more of inventory.

Here are our stats.

The number of active listings per month from January 2019 until May 2020, remember we are only 11 days into May!

The number of active listings is going up!

A slight increase!

Here are the months of inventory

Don't be alarmed by May 2020, we're only 11 days into May!

18 days into May and we are now down to 11 months, told you not to be alarmed!

See, there was nothing to worry about. But here is a prime example where stats could be used to manipulate. Imagine a marketing piece proclaiming "It's a buyer's market, 18 months of inventory!"

As you can see we have been in a balanced market, except for a few months, since January 2019.

Does this mean your home is in a balanced market? Maybe, but it's not that simple.

If there are 20 buyers looking for 4 bedroom houses, over 1,600 sq ft with a 3 car garage in the north end and there are only 3, months of inventory might be .5

Conversely, if there are 25 buyers looking for 2+ bedroom houses, 800+ sq ft, priced under $350,000 anywhere in Saskatoon, and there are 300 listed, months of inventory might be 12!

If you would like to have the weekly update of this report click the link below. 

#contact-form-button#

Finally I will track some economic indicators, I went over these on my page B.C. Before Covid-19 

Following these will give us an idea of where the economy is going and what to expect going forward. The will also help to give us an idea where the market might be A.C. After Covid-19 

HOUSING STARTS

(Monthly)

Good news on housing starts!

 INTEREST RATES

#boc-overnight-rate#

The Overnight Rate, often referred to as The Policy Interest Rate, is a rate set by The Bank of Canada that the 5 major banks base their lending rates on. 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

(Monthly)

Canada

#canada-unemployment# 

Saskatchewan

To be expected with the economic shut down that unemployment numbers would go up. The the opening up of the economy and the C.E.W.S. (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy) we should see these numbers come down on the next report!

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

(Last Tuesday of every month)

This is what is called a "lagging" economic indicator, going down is not a good sign. 

If you want to "Go Deep" on how it works, click here.

 #canadian-consumer-confidence-index#

PRICE OF OIL

Good thing to keep an eye on in Western Canada

#crude-oil-price#

Probably a good stat to watch, if production goes up that should equate to more jobs!

#crude-oil-production#

PRICE OF POTASH

(Monthly)

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