In this report I will update the weekly stats for Saskatoon as well as the running stats during covid.
This will eventually turn into live report!
Does "Saskatoon Home Sales up 55%" sound like a "Seller's Market"?
It's not! The truth is, during the week of May 4th - May 10th there were 49 home sales in Saskatoon.
The week of May 11th - May 17th there were 76 homes sell, up 55% from the week before.
It doesn't mean there is a Seller's market, it just means that people are becoming more confident leaving their homes. This is an example of "Economy Delayed", there were a group of home buyers that were looking to buy before the Covid-19 shutdown. I would speculate that the majority of these buyers put their plans on hold and are now confident to resume their search. If you read my report on what our housing market was like before the shutdown you will see that it was off to a great start!
If you want to know where our housing market was before covid-19 click here.
When you see headlines claiming "Sales Up 55%" or "Sales Down 45%" look further into these claims to find out the true story! If you don't have the time or the resources to analyze the data, find a trusted advisor to help guide you.
This data is from Google Trends which shows what was being searched over a period of time. The chart below is "houses for sale" in Canada. You can see that March and April there wasn't much interest in houses for sale, but May has gone up!
This is where it gets interesting for us! The most popular region in Canada that Canadians were searching for houses.....Saskatchewan!
It gets better! Look what city was the most searched by Canadians looking for houses for sale.....Saskatoon!
Week of May 11th -17th
Last week we had 11 more new listings than the week before, up 6%.
We had a significant increase in sales, 27 more than last week! Up 55%
Week of May 4th -10th
Here is a week to week comparison
These next 2 charts will show us the monthly totals of New Listings and Number of Sales. This will help us compare not only what is happening month to month but also to what was happening last year. We can see that the number of houses sold in April 2020 is down 44% compared to the amount sold in April 2019. You will also notice that the number of sales from March to April in 2019 went up 47% and in 2020 March to April went down 22%. This shouldn't be a surprise given what we are going through at the moment! Has this affected house prices? Let's move to the next set of data. If you would like to read the SRA (Saskatchewan Realtors® Association) monthly report click here.
Have house prices been affected?
The first tool we will look at it is the Home Price Index. With this we can look at what prices are doing nationally, regionally, locally, even down to a neighbourhood! Check out these videos for an explanation.
Looking at these 2 charts that show the Saskatoon Home Price Index form April 2019 and April 2020 you can see that the composite price is the same!
You might be looking at the 1st graph and wondering, "Did prices go up in April?" Nope, There was a house sell in Saskatoon for 3.7 million! Do you see how this stat could be used to claim that house prices are going up? When you are going to sell your house you need accurate information! How do I determine the price range of a house? Click here.
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
You have probably heard the term, "It's a buyer's market" or "It's a sellers market"
The next stat we need to follow is Months of Inventory. This is a stat that tells us, based on the amount of sales, if there were no more new listings, how long would it take for the current amount of listings to sell. The formula is;
Find the number of active listings on the market within a certain time period.
Identify how many homes were sold or conditionally sold during that same time period.
Divide the active listings number by the sales and conditional sales to find months of supply.
This can be as general as all residential housing in Saskatoon for the past 12 months or 3 bedroom bungalows, 900-1,100 sq ft in River Heights for the past month! Note: If you use to short a time period you won't get an accurate result, in my opinion using the last 3 months would give you the best indication.
A Seller's Market is 4 months (120 days) or less of inventory.
A Balanced Market is 4 - 6 months (120-180 days) of inventory.
A Buyer's Market is 6 months (180 days) or more of inventory.
Here are our stats.
The number of active listings per month from January 2019 until May 2020, remember we are only 11 days into May!
The number of active listings is going up!
Here are the months of inventory
Don't be alarmed by May 2020, we're only 11 days into May!
18 days into May and we are now down to 11 months, told you not to be alarmed!
As you can see we have been in a balanced market, except for a few months, since January 2019.
Does this mean your home is in a balanced market? Maybe, but it's not that simple.
If there are 20 buyers looking for 4 bedroom houses, over 1,600 sq ft with a 3 car garage in the north end and there are only 3, months of inventory might be .5
Conversely, if there are 25 buyers looking for 2+ bedroom houses, 800+ sq ft, priced under $350,000 anywhere in Saskatoon, and there are 300 listed, months of inventory might be 12!
If you would like to have the weekly update of this report click the link below.
Finally I will track some economic indicators, I went over these on my page B.C. Before Covid-19
Following these will give us an idea of where the economy is going and what to expect going forward. The will also help to give us an idea where the market might be A.C. After Covid-19
Good news on housing starts!
The Overnight Rate, often referred to as The Policy Interest Rate, is a rate set by The Bank of Canada that the 5 major banks base their lending rates on.
To be expected with the economic shut down that unemployment numbers would go up. The the opening up of the economy and the C.E.W.S. (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy) we should see these numbers come down on the next report!
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
(Last Tuesday of every month)
This is what is called a "lagging" economic indicator, going down is not a good sign.
If you want to "Go Deep" on how it works, click here.
PRICE OF OIL
Good thing to keep an eye on in Western Canada
Probably a good stat to watch, if production goes up that should equate to more jobs!